We've all been there: you're at a job and you know it's not for you anymore. You come in drained, you're not excited on a Monday morning, and you feel like you could be using your time so much better. Career changes are daunting — the stress of leaving what you're comfortable with stops many people from taking the first step.
It doesn't have to be this way. Mental models can help you clarify the direction you want to go and plan for how to get there.
Get in Touch With Yourself
Before you can decide which change to make, you need to understand yourself.
The mental model of velocity reminds us there is a difference between speed and direction. It's easy to move fast without getting anywhere — chasing more money or a better title without that movement leading where you actually want to end up. As the old saying goes, we want to run to something, not from something. When you articulate your desired direction, everything you do becomes part of a larger plan.
Once you know where you want to end up, work backward using inversion. Start at the goal and consider what needs to be true in order for you to get there. What needs to happen for you to wake up happy and excited to go to work every day? Are you working on projects aligned with your values? Are you in a collaborative team environment? Are you contributing to making the world a better place? Inversion helps you identify the critical factors — finances, family support, new skills — that must be in place before you move.
Then take stock of the skills you already have, using the concept of exaptation — the idea that traits evolved for one purpose can end up being useful for something completely different. Feathers evolved for insulation; only later did they enable flight. Play-Doh was invented to clean coal soot off walls. Bubble wrap was originally designed for shower curtains. Your skills work the same way. Being good at presenting the monthly status update doesn't just mean you're good at presentations — it means you can articulate ideas clearly, distill information for diverse audiences, and build networks. What else can those skills be used for?
Evaluate the Environment
When researching new careers, remember that the "map is not the territory." The map we have of a dream job — built from success stories and our love of the field — is very different from the day-to-day reality. Being a research scientist at a university isn't just immersing yourself in a subject you love. It's grant applications, teaching, and navigating bureaucracy.
Build a more accurate map by talking to as many people as possible — those who love the work and those who quit. Get a clear picture of what a typical day actually involves, including the administrative tasks, the meetings, and the frustrations. You give yourself a much higher chance of satisfaction if you learn as much as you can about the territory beforehand.
Plan for the Change
Global and local maxima teaches us that sometimes you have to go down a hill before climbing a new one. Too often we tie our self-worth to salary or title and reject any opportunity that doesn't immediately pay more or sound impressive. But it's impossible to reach the next peak without walking through the valley first. A pay cut or a junior role might be exactly the step forward you need.
Activation energy means planning not just for the first step, but for sustaining the change until it takes hold. Do you have savings to support yourself through retraining? Do you have emotional support for the challenges ahead? A fire doesn't start with one match and a giant log — you need kindling in between. What will you need to keep moving in the right direction after you've taken that first step?
Make the Decision
After all your research, it can still be hard to choose. Try probabilistic thinking — specifically, imagine a Bayesian casino. Picture walking up to a roulette table and betting on one of your two best options. How much would you put down? If you'd bet only ten dollars, you probably need to do more research. If you're willing to put down thousands, that's very likely the right decision for you.
Fully imagine the money in your account, withdrawing it, and placing it on the table. How much you're willing to part with says a lot about how good that choice is likely to be.
Career changes are some of the biggest moves we'll ever make. But with the right mental models, they don't have to be daunting — they become a process you can navigate with confidence.