That's according to Dr Gerard McCarthy , a Maynooth University (MU) oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS) in the Department of Geography , who has led a new article for Nature Climate Change .
"The extreme climate collapse scenarios depicted in some fictional portrayals and media reports are often not grounded in scientific reality, but the genuine risks are still significant and require proper planning," said Dr McCarthy.
"It has happened that a new paper comes out, you get headlines saying the AMOC is going to collapse in the next few years. What we need to do is bring together a broader scientific voice to properly assess all the existing AMOC research literature, rather than having fluctuating headlines that concern and confuse our policymakers," said Dr McCarthy.
Dr McCarthy added, "the influential study used changes in sea surface temperature records stretching back over a century to build its case. The records show that the stretch of ocean in the North Atlantic is the only region on Earth that has systematically cooled while almost everywhere else warmed."
This retrospective paper - co-authored by a professor – considered the questions raised by the paper and highlighted the need for a clearer scientific consensus, setting the stage for a larger international research project called the AMOC in Focus assessment report, which Dr McCarthy is co-leading and is sponsored by international research initiatives.
This project is a multi-scientist, multi-country initiative aimed at producing authoritative, usable guidance for policymakers.
Regarding what AMOC changes mean for the future, Dr McCarthy said it's likely we will see relative cooling in the Atlantic.
"Cooling is not really what I'm worried about. What concerns me is changes in precipitation patterns and storminess. A weakening AMOC tightens the temperature gradient that fuels Atlantic storms, like a taut elastic band – and then more of those storms get catapulted towards certain regions," said Dr McCarthy.
Dr McCarthy is an expert on AMOC; the system of ocean currents, sometimes known as the Gulf Stream System, that is critical to temperate climates. He also co-chairs the ongoing AMOC in Focus assessment, which brings together leading scientists from various countries to assess the likelihood and risks of a potential disruption to the Atlantic Ocean's circulation system and its associated implications.