The old saying splits the day in two. "If Lidong comes in the morning, the cold freezes the cattle. If it comes in the afternoon, you can wear thin clothes."
Lidong, the Start of Winter, will arrive today at 5:52 p.m. Beijing time. By the old rule that anything after noon counts as afternoon, 2026 lands on the softer side of that line.
The saying was never a forecast. People who watched the sky, not satellites, used the hour as a hint about how fast the first hard cold felt. A morning crossing sounded like a season that slammed in. An afternoon crossing sounded like cold air that still had to fight its way. The clock was a warning bell. It did not describe the rest of winter.
This winter has another script. A very strong El Nino, a warming of the tropical Pacific, is already in place, and it is expected to rank among the strongest on record. China's climate outlook for December through February is warmer than usual on average. It also points to bigger swings from week to week, and to cold waves that may come a little more often, not less.
"Warmer than usual" is a three-month score, not a daily mood. It is added up after February. A mild week does not lock it in, and a brutal week does not wipe it out. The last event of this strength, in 2015 and 2016, still left the winter a little milder than the long-term average. Then, from January 21 to 25, 2016, temperatures across much of the country fell by 12 to 18 degrees Celsius, and freezing weather reached the south.
The hour of Lidong itself keeps sliding. In 2024 it came around 6:20 a.m. Last year it fell just after noon. This year it will come at 5:52 p.m. The solar year is not a round number of days, so the moment of Lidong creeps later until a leap year tugs it back.